TRAVELLING LIGHT BEFORE THE WIND OF CHANGE
Rev. Dr. Michael J Nel
January 2023
On the 3 February 1960 the British
Prime Minister Sir Harold McMillan gave a speech in the South African
parliament which became known as the Wind of Change speech. In it he stated:
The wind of change
is blowing through this continent, and, whether we like it or not, this growth
of national consciousness is a political fact. We must all accept it as a fact,
and our national policies must take account of it. https://web-archives.univ-pau.fr/english/TD2doc1.pdf
This speech was a warning to all the
colonial powers that an end was coming to their control of their colonies in
Africa. There were not many positive responses to his speech even if it did
reverberate among the colonial powers. The South African government rejected
his comments and soon after held a referendum to declare South Africa a
republic. Other colonial powers simply ignored his warning. Those who ignored
his warning about the rise of “national consciousness” in Africa, including
South Africa, found themselves embroiled in bloody civil wars and the loss of
power and control over their colonies. It was at their own peril that the
colonial powers ignored the wind of change sweeping over Africa.
The wind of change is blowing across
the Church in Canada. This wind of
change is bringing about not the run of the mill changes but as in Sir. Harold
McMillan’s speech, the changes are of seismic proportions. These changes, which
are already evident on the West coast of North America, are revealed in census
reports.
In the Statistics Canada census report
of the 2021 it is very clear that the Church is facing a catastrophic slow
demise. The report reveals that the number of people who report that they are
Christian has dropped significantly since the 2010 census.
In 2021,
more than 19.3 million people reported a Christian religion, or just
over half of the Canadian population (53.3%). However, this percentage is down
from 67.3% in 2011 and 77.1% in 2001.
Approximately 12.6 million people, or
more than one-third of Canada's population, reported having no religious
affiliation or having a secular perspective (atheist, agnostic, humanist and
other secular perspectives). The proportion of this population has more than
doubled in 20 years, rising from 16.5% in 2001 to 23.9%
in 2011 and to 34.6% in 2021.
The Roman Catholic Church in Quebec
over the past 10 years is showing a similar dramatic drop in those reporting to
be Christian.
Quebec
is the only province or territory where more than half the population reported
being Catholic (53.8%). However, the proportion of the population who reported
being Catholic has fallen considerably over the last 10 years in
Quebec, as three-quarters (74.7%) of the Quebec population reported it as their
religion in 2011.
It is however, in British Columbia and
the Yukon that the wind of change reveals the most dramatic decline of the
Christian Church. The statistics reveal that British Columbia and the Yukon are
the most secular areas of Canada.
Yukon
and British Columbia stand out with regard to their population reporting no
religious affiliation. Close to three in five (59.7%) of Yukon's population and
slightly over one-half (52.1%) of British Columbia's population reported no
religious affiliation in 2021, compared with 34.6% for Canada as a
whole.
Statistics Canada 2021 census figures reveals
a decline in the Church across the whole of Canada and not just British
Columbia and the Yukon. The trend towards increasing secularism can be seen in
the other provinces as well.
The Anglican Church of Canada commissioned
a study by Rev. Neil Elliot. In his report to the Anglican Church he stated:
The data show the Church running out of members in little more
than two decades if it continues to decline at its current rate, Elliot said in
a Nov. 8 presentation
“We’ve got simple projections from our data that suggest that
there will be no members, attenders or givers in the Anglican Church of Canada
by approximately 2040,” he said.
This trend towards increasing secularism on the west coast of the
USA and Canada is not new. Government census both in Canada and the USA reveal
an increasing number of people as declaring in response to the religion
question as being “none.” In 2004 Patricia Killen and Mark Silk
edited a book on this west coast phenomenon which they refer to as the “None
Zone.” This decline in Church membership
is not only a North American phenomenon. In a recent census (2022) this trend
is also occurring in England and Wales and has led to calls for the disestablish
the Church in England.
England and Wales are now
minority Christian countries for the first time since census data collection
began, with less than half the population describing themselves as Christian,
and a big increase in the proportion of people saying they have no religion.
Many congregations in the Lutheran Church
in Canada show a similar decline in membership as indicated in the Anglican
study and reflected in the Statistics Canada Census Report of the 2021. Those gathering
in the pews on Sundays are mostly grey or white haired. The decline is also reflected
in that congregations no longer have Sunday Schools or youth groups. This lack
of children in Church reflects the serious loss of the middle aged group since
it is this group who has the children. Middle aged people are conspicuous by
their absence. The decline is also reflected in the decrease in the number of
baptisms and confirmations. The wind of change is sweeping across the Church. The
question is how is the Church to respond to these changes?
Just because the Church organization
is in decline does not mean that the Church of Jesus the Christ will undergo
radical changes and may even disappear. Since the Church of Jesus the Christ is
a creation of the Holy Spirit it will not die. The radical changes confronting
the Church are in the way the Church is organized and functions. There is
inevitability in this process of change since there is no stopping the wind from
blowing over the Church. In some areas such as British Columbia and the Yukon the
wind of change is reaching gale force. Since these changes are outside of the
control of the Church the question facing the church is how it is to respond? In
order to manage itself during this time of change what processes are necessary for
the Church to address these changes? What type of leadership is required in the
Church during this major transition which will lead to a radically new future? It
is no longer just a matter whether there will be changes since the wind of
change is already blowing. The Church cannot stop the wind all it can do is
determine how it will face the wind of change.
As Sir Harold McMillan found out the
responses to his presentation varied greatly. There were some who welcomed his
acknowledgement that changes were coming. There were others such as the South
African government who angrily rejected what he said. Others probably simply
ignored his comments. What will be the response of the Church to the wind of
change? Will the response of the Church be any different than the responses to
the presentation of Sir Harold McMillan?
Change is inevitable and is part of
life. However, the changes facing the Church in Canada are intense and very serious.
Change triggers anxiety. But for those facing the wind of change that is
sweeping through the Church anxiety is becoming increasingly intense. No one in
the Church can avoid this anxiety since no one can avoid the wind of change.
The Church, both lay and clergy, is already being affected by the increasing
anxiety about its future in Canada. The
changes are affecting the functioning, planning and thinking of the Church.
This is the time when the Church needs
leaders who are able to remain calm and thoughtful when facing the wind storm.
It needs leaders who remain thoughtful when those around them grow increasing
anxious and demand quick fixes. Only calm thoughtful leaders will be able to
lead and guide the Church during these increasingly anxious times. Without such
leaders the anxious Church becomes stuck, flounders and prone to make poor
choices that negatively shape its future. These leaders are not necessarily
popular and if elected will face intense reactivity.
An anxious Church in the face of
change struggles with distorted perception. Clarity in thinking becomes clouded
by emotional which leads to a focus on generalizations. Instead of facing the
problems there is a tendency manage the anxiety by externalizing the problem.
This leads to cause and effect thinking and the blaming of others, society, for
what its anxiety. This blaming leads to identifying other groups as the cause
for its own failures and problems. When blaming others the Church fails to take
responsibility for its own functioning. Blaming others for its anxiety leads to
the loss of freedom and integrity and the ability to thoughtfully plan for its
future. By holding others responsible for its anxiety it is unable to respond
to the changes thoughtfully. An anxious Church
cannot ask new questions that would assist it to respond with new and
thoughtful responses. There will be those who may even resist these new
questions since these new questions will trigger an intensification of anxiety.
The old is comfortable but new questions challenges this desire for comfort.
The wind of change is blowing through
the Church. Just as one cannot stop the wind from blowing or change its
direction the Church cannot stop the changes that it is facing. For some the
need to face the changes creates intense fear for the future of the Church.
Others are responding with helplessness as the Church is buffeted by the wind.
Others simply bury their heads like the proverbial ostrich and try to ignore
the changes. For many the experience is that of being helpless. The usual
response is to simply keep doing the same things over and over again hoping
that something new will arise. Others may be driven by anxiety to participate
in anxious chatter that only increases their anxiety.
It is no longer possible to ignore the
effects of the wind of change blowing through the Church. The statistics paint
a rather bleak picture about the future of the Church. These changes are increasingly
reflected in congregations who due to financial constraints can no longer
afford to call a pastor. The lack of adequate financial recourses is leading
some congregations to sharing a pastor with another congregation. Donations decrease
as the membership of congregation’s decline this makes the paying of
administrative and operating costs increasingly difficult. In order to remain financially viable
congregations either close or merge. All these are only temporary solutions and
only delay the inevitable. There may be a day coming when the Western Synods of
the ELCIC may have to merge. How can the Church turn and face the wind of
change? How can it make friends with, and perhaps even embrace the wind of
change? How can the Church listen for the voice of God in the wind?
Embracing the Wind of Change
Planning for the future in the face of
major changes is about finding an appropriate process and leaders who can
provide calm guidance. In the strategic planning process the unpacking and
implementation of each goal is addresses by three questions. To implement a
strategic plan requires people with knowledge and skill. The problem facing the
church is that a declining membership does not have the needed human resources
to implement a strategic plan. Given the strength of the wind of change blowing
through the Church means that planning for the future not so much a process of setting
goals as it is seeking ways for the Church to adjusts to the changes. This
adjustment process is now a matter of survival.
To lean into and manage the
unavoidable change the Church has to engage in a reflective and creative
process. Emotional reactivity will sabotage the process and triggered increased
anxiety. The process for addressing
change is informed by a number of questions.
The first step in the process:
When making the
decisions in response to the questions, what values, principles, and theology
is to inform the selection process?
This is an important first step and
cannot be ignored or treated lightly. This step in the process seeks to clarify
what principles, values and for Christians what theology will inform how the
decisions will be made. Without this step decisions will not reflect who we are
as God’s children and these decisions will be driven more by emotion than
thoughtfulness. By defining the values, principles and theology for decision
making avoids the simplistic and empty responses shaped by “I like” and “I
don’t like” or “I want” or “I don’t want.”.
Clarity in discerning the necessary
principles and theology for decision making will assist in the response to the
following three questions.
1. As the Church moves into a new and unknown future
what is essential and needs to be retained at all costs if the Church is to
continue being the Church?
2. What is important to keep but needs to be
changed?
3. What can be set aside as unnecessary for the
future Church?
Much of the discussion that is taking
place about the future of the Church is driven by anxiety. These anxious
discussions immediately and solely address the third question while ignoring
the importance of articulating values, principles and theology in the decision
making process. The emotionally driven anxious responses to the third question
are not based on thoughtful reflection. They are anxious attempts at finding
quick solutions to save the Church from extinction. Among these emotional
driven responses are suggestions such as discarding the liturgy, vestment and for
some even the creed.
When individuals, families and even
nations become anxious there is a push for greater togetherness. The belief
that drives this process is that is we think alike, believe the same things,
and behaviour in a similar manner that this togetherness will dissipate the
anxiety. Unfortunately this process leads to the loss of self. A similar
response to anxiety in the Church is to anxiously admire the seeming success of
some larger churches, often defined as community Churches, with the desire to try
and emulate them. Little thought is then given to fact they have their own
particular and different identity. To emulate them is to surrender one’s own
identity for theirs with the loss of individuality. A further problem is that
any attempt at such emulation only addresses surface issues in order to
alleviate anxiety.
The importance of responding out of
one’s own individuality and unique identity cannot be surrendered in the
service of ameliorating anxiety. A wholesome response to the wind of change
needs arise from clarity about one’s own identity, core values, principles and
theology, To travel before the winds of change is to respond thoughtfully out
of one’s own identity to the questions
what is essential to being the Church and needs to be retained, what needs to
be retained by has to be changed and what can be discarded.
This process is not unique to the changes
the Church is experiencing in Canada. Around 1970 the General Secretary of the
Lutheran World Federation related how the Soviet Government had invited him to
visit German speaking communities. These communities had been in the western
regions of the Soviet Union but were perceived as a threat during the Second
World War. They were moved to the Eastern part of the Soviet Union. He related
how these communities of German Lutheran Christians had made a thoughtful
response about what was essential to the maintenance of their faith. At the
core of their decision was to keep their bibles and their hymnals. They told
him what they missed was preaching. What will the Church in Canada take with it
as it travels before the wind of change?
The questions about what to keep, what
to keep but change and what to discard are questions to which every teenager
needs to respond thoughtfully if she or he is to become a responsible mature
adult. But it is not only teenagers who have to deal with these questions.
Senior citizens who are moving into assisted living have also to respond to
these questions. What is of value and essential that they will take with them,
what needs to be change to be accommodated in their new lodgings and what has
to be discarded?
In order to respond to the wind of
change there needs to be an orderly and efficient process. It is the purpose of
these questions to provide such a step by step deliberate process. This process
will then lead to an informed and thoughtful adaptation to the wind of change.
The process starts with the Church
clarifying its values, principles and theology. This step is important since it
informs the whole decision making process. This thoughtful processrduces the
anxiety in the Church. With anxiety becoming more manageable the Church will be
open to significant changes. Instead of facing the future with fear and anxiety
the Church can make friends with and embrace the new future. This affirmation
of the Church as the creation of the Spirit of God will give birth to hope in
spite of the bleak future painted by the statistics.
As part of the process of articulating
its values, principles and theology the Church in Canada needs to confess to
how it has contributed to its own decline. An increasing secularization of society is not
the only source of that decline. Integral to the process is that the Church
accepts responsibility for the abuse and other scandals that have severely damaged
its ministry and reputation. These scandals have unfortunately caused many to
perceive the Church as offensive and irrelevant. The attention the Church has
received in the media all too often relates to reports about scandals and
schism.
The only way the Church in Canada can
plan for a new future is for it to acknowledge and confess its failures and
sins. By confessing it acknowledges and
accepts responsibility for its own brokenness and how it has betrayed its
values, principles and God’s love. There is much talk in the Church of speaking
truth to power which is understood as confronting governments and organizations
with its injustices. But this process of renewal in the face of the wind of
change means that speaking truth to power implies addressing the Church and how
it has participated in injustice. This process calls on the Church confess to
God and all others that it has sinned “in thought, word and deed.” Only then
will the Church be free to make informed thoughtful decisions as it seeks to embrace
the inevitable change. The wind of change is blowing and the Church is being
buffeted by the wind. There is inevitability in the need to change. Just as one
cannot stop the wind or change its direction the option for the Church is to
embrace the change or continue on the path of decline.
The process of addressing the process
of change and defining a new future is a matter for the the whole Church to be
involved, both lay and clergy. The problem belongs to the whole Church. Effective
ministry in the future will require a new understanding by lay and clergy of leadership.
The wind of change is revealing that there is a leadership problem within the
Church. Leaders are not equipped to lead in a changing Church. The future
Church will have to equip the clergy leaders for ministry not just in a Church
with a declining membership but more importantly how to minister in an increasingly
secular society. Without the clarity of self the Church will flounder. This
means that theological education will need to change if it is to prepare clergy
to minister in a Church that for the first time in Canadian society will be a
minority. This is not a problem for some distant future but statistics already
reveal that this future is already present in British Columbia and the Yukon.
The Church needs to consider
approaching those Churches who are already doing ministry in societies in which
it is a minority. Such a process means that the Church in Canada is in the
porition of being the student who gathers at the feet of these new teachers.
This will require an attitude of openness to learning from them tempered with
humility.
