TRAVELLING LIGHT BEFORE THE WIND OF CHANGE

Rev. Dr. Michael J Nel

January 2023

 

On the 3 February 1960 the British Prime Minister Sir Harold McMillan gave a speech in the South African parliament which became known as the Wind of Change speech. In it he stated:

The wind of change is blowing through this continent, and, whether we like it or not, this growth of national consciousness is a political fact. We must all accept it as a fact, and our national policies must take account of it.    https://web-archives.univ-pau.fr/english/TD2doc1.pdf

This speech was a warning to all the colonial powers that an end was coming to their control of their colonies in Africa. There were not many positive responses to his speech even if it did reverberate among the colonial powers. The South African government rejected his comments and soon after held a referendum to declare South Africa a republic. Other colonial powers simply ignored his warning. Those who ignored his warning about the rise of “national consciousness” in Africa, including South Africa, found themselves embroiled in bloody civil wars and the loss of power and control over their colonies. It was at their own peril that the colonial powers ignored the wind of change sweeping over Africa.

The wind of change is blowing across the Church in Canada.  This wind of change is bringing about not the run of the mill changes but as in Sir. Harold McMillan’s speech, the changes are of seismic proportions. These changes, which are already evident on the West coast of North America, are revealed in census reports.

In the Statistics Canada census report of the 2021 it is very clear that the Church is facing a catastrophic slow demise. The report reveals that the number of people who report that they are Christian has dropped significantly since the 2010 census.[1]

In 2021, more than 19.3 million people reported a Christian religion, or just over half of the Canadian population (53.3%). However, this percentage is down from 67.3% in 2011 and 77.1% in 2001.

 

Approximately 12.6 million people, or more than one-third of Canada's population, reported having no religious affiliation or having a secular perspective (atheist, agnostic, humanist and other secular perspectives). The proportion of this population has more than doubled in 20 years, rising from 16.5% in 2001 to 23.9% in 2011 and to 34.6% in 2021.

The Roman Catholic Church in Quebec over the past 10 years is showing a similar dramatic drop in those reporting to be Christian.

Quebec is the only province or territory where more than half the population reported being Catholic (53.8%). However, the proportion of the population who reported being Catholic has fallen considerably over the last 10 years in Quebec, as three-quarters (74.7%) of the Quebec population reported it as their religion in 2011.

 

It is however, in British Columbia and the Yukon that the wind of change reveals the most dramatic decline of the Christian Church. The statistics reveal that British Columbia and the Yukon are the most secular areas of Canada.

Yukon and British Columbia stand out with regard to their population reporting no religious affiliation. Close to three in five (59.7%) of Yukon's population and slightly over one-half (52.1%) of British Columbia's population reported no religious affiliation in 2021, compared with 34.6% for Canada as a whole.

 

Statistics Canada 2021 census figures reveals a decline in the Church across the whole of Canada and not just British Columbia and the Yukon. The trend towards increasing secularism can be seen in the other provinces as well.

The Anglican Church of Canada commissioned a study by Rev. Neil Elliot. In his report to the Anglican Church he stated:

The data show the Church running out of members in little more than two decades if it continues to decline at its current rate, Elliot said in a Nov. 8 presentation

 

“We’ve got simple projections from our data that suggest that there will be no members, attenders or givers in the Anglican Church of Canada by approximately 2040,” he said.[2]

 

This trend towards increasing secularism on the west coast of the USA and Canada is not new. Government census both in Canada and the USA reveal an increasing number of people as declaring in response to the religion question as being “none.” In 2004 Patricia Killen and Mark Silk[3] edited a book on this west coast phenomenon which they refer to as the “None Zone.”  This decline in Church membership is not only a North American phenomenon. In a recent census (2022) this trend is also occurring in England and Wales and has led to calls for the disestablish the Church in England.

 

England and Wales are now minority Christian countries for the first time since census data collection began, with less than half the population describing themselves as Christian, and a big increase in the proportion of people saying they have no religion.[4]

 

Many congregations in the Lutheran Church in Canada show a similar decline in membership as indicated in the Anglican study and reflected in the Statistics Canada Census Report of the 2021. Those gathering in the pews on Sundays are mostly grey or white haired. The decline is also reflected in that congregations no longer have Sunday Schools or youth groups. This lack of children in Church reflects the serious loss of the middle aged group since it is this group who has the children. Middle aged people are conspicuous by their absence. The decline is also reflected in the decrease in the number of baptisms and confirmations. The wind of change is sweeping across the Church. The question is how is the Church to respond to these changes?

Just because the Church organization is in decline does not mean that the Church of Jesus the Christ will undergo radical changes and may even disappear. Since the Church of Jesus the Christ is a creation of the Holy Spirit it will not die. The radical changes confronting the Church are in the way the Church is organized and functions. There is inevitability in this process of change since there is no stopping the wind from blowing over the Church. In some areas such as British Columbia and the Yukon the wind of change is reaching gale force. Since these changes are outside of the control of the Church the question facing the church is how it is to respond? In order to manage itself during this time of change what processes are necessary for the Church to address these changes? What type of leadership is required in the Church during this major transition which will lead to a radically new future? It is no longer just a matter whether there will be changes since the wind of change is already blowing. The Church cannot stop the wind all it can do is determine how it will face the wind of change.

As Sir Harold McMillan found out the responses to his presentation varied greatly. There were some who welcomed his acknowledgement that changes were coming. There were others such as the South African government who angrily rejected what he said. Others probably simply ignored his comments. What will be the response of the Church to the wind of change? Will the response of the Church be any different than the responses to the presentation of Sir Harold McMillan?

Change is inevitable and is part of life. However, the changes facing the Church in Canada are intense and very serious. Change triggers anxiety. But for those facing the wind of change that is sweeping through the Church anxiety is becoming increasingly intense. No one in the Church can avoid this anxiety since no one can avoid the wind of change. The Church, both lay and clergy, is already being affected by the increasing anxiety about its future in Canada.  The changes are affecting the functioning, planning and thinking of the Church.

This is the time when the Church needs leaders who are able to remain calm and thoughtful when facing the wind storm. It needs leaders who remain thoughtful when those around them grow increasing anxious and demand quick fixes. Only calm thoughtful leaders will be able to lead and guide the Church during these increasingly anxious times. Without such leaders the anxious Church becomes stuck, flounders and prone to make poor choices that negatively shape its future. These leaders are not necessarily popular and if elected will face intense reactivity.

An anxious Church in the face of change struggles with distorted perception. Clarity in thinking becomes clouded by emotional which leads to a focus on generalizations. Instead of facing the problems there is a tendency manage the anxiety by externalizing the problem. This leads to cause and effect thinking and the blaming of others, society, for what its anxiety. This blaming leads to identifying other groups as the cause for its own failures and problems. When blaming others the Church fails to take responsibility for its own functioning. Blaming others for its anxiety leads to the loss of freedom and integrity and the ability to thoughtfully plan for its future. By holding others responsible for its anxiety it is unable to respond to the changes thoughtfully.  An anxious Church cannot ask new questions that would assist it to respond with new and thoughtful responses. There will be those who may even resist these new questions since these new questions will trigger an intensification of anxiety. The old is comfortable but new questions challenges this desire for comfort.

The wind of change is blowing through the Church. Just as one cannot stop the wind from blowing or change its direction the Church cannot stop the changes that it is facing. For some the need to face the changes creates intense fear for the future of the Church. Others are responding with helplessness as the Church is buffeted by the wind. Others simply bury their heads like the proverbial ostrich and try to ignore the changes. For many the experience is that of being helpless. The usual response is to simply keep doing the same things over and over again hoping that something new will arise. Others may be driven by anxiety to participate in anxious chatter that only increases their anxiety.

It is no longer possible to ignore the effects of the wind of change blowing through the Church. The statistics paint a rather bleak picture about the future of the Church. These changes are increasingly reflected in congregations who due to financial constraints can no longer afford to call a pastor. The lack of adequate financial recourses is leading some congregations to sharing a pastor with another congregation. Donations decrease as the membership of congregation’s decline this makes the paying of administrative and operating costs increasingly difficult.  In order to remain financially viable congregations either close or merge. All these are only temporary solutions and only delay the inevitable. There may be a day coming when the Western Synods of the ELCIC may have to merge. How can the Church turn and face the wind of change? How can it make friends with, and perhaps even embrace the wind of change? How can the Church listen for the voice of God in the wind?

 

Embracing the Wind of Change

Planning for the future in the face of major changes is about finding an appropriate process and leaders who can provide calm guidance. In the strategic planning process the unpacking and implementation of each goal is addresses by three questions. To implement a strategic plan requires people with knowledge and skill. The problem facing the church is that a declining membership does not have the needed human resources to implement a strategic plan. Given the strength of the wind of change blowing through the Church means that planning for the future not so much a process of setting goals as it is seeking ways for the Church to adjusts to the changes. This adjustment process is now a matter of survival.

To lean into and manage the unavoidable change the Church has to engage in a reflective and creative process. Emotional reactivity will sabotage the process and triggered increased anxiety.  The process for addressing change is informed by a number of questions.

The first step in the process:

When making the decisions in response to the questions, what values, principles, and theology is to inform the selection process?

This is an important first step and cannot be ignored or treated lightly. This step in the process seeks to clarify what principles, values and for Christians what theology will inform how the decisions will be made. Without this step decisions will not reflect who we are as God’s children and these decisions will be driven more by emotion than thoughtfulness. By defining the values, principles and theology for decision making avoids the simplistic and empty responses shaped by “I like” and “I don’t like” or “I want” or “I don’t want.”.

Clarity in discerning the necessary principles and theology for decision making will assist in the response to the following three questions.

1.     As the Church moves into a new and unknown future what is essential and needs to be retained at all costs if the Church is to continue being the Church?

2.     What is important to keep but needs to be changed?

3.     What can be set aside as unnecessary for the future Church?

Much of the discussion that is taking place about the future of the Church is driven by anxiety. These anxious discussions immediately and solely address the third question while ignoring the importance of articulating values, principles and theology in the decision making process. The emotionally driven anxious responses to the third question are not based on thoughtful reflection. They are anxious attempts at finding quick solutions to save the Church from extinction. Among these emotional driven responses are suggestions such as discarding the liturgy, vestment and for some even the creed.

When individuals, families and even nations become anxious there is a push for greater togetherness. The belief that drives this process is that is we think alike, believe the same things, and behaviour in a similar manner that this togetherness will dissipate the anxiety. Unfortunately this process leads to the loss of self. A similar response to anxiety in the Church is to anxiously admire the seeming success of some larger churches, often defined as community Churches, with the desire to try and emulate them. Little thought is then given to fact they have their own particular and different identity. To emulate them is to surrender one’s own identity for theirs with the loss of individuality. A further problem is that any attempt at such emulation only addresses surface issues in order to alleviate anxiety.

The importance of responding out of one’s own individuality and unique identity cannot be surrendered in the service of ameliorating anxiety. A wholesome response to the wind of change needs arise from clarity about one’s own identity, core values, principles and theology, To travel before the winds of change is to respond thoughtfully out of one’s own  identity to the questions what is essential to being the Church and needs to be retained, what needs to be retained by has to be changed and what can be discarded.

This process is not unique to the changes the Church is experiencing in Canada. Around 1970 the General Secretary of the Lutheran World Federation related how the Soviet Government had invited him to visit German speaking communities. These communities had been in the western regions of the Soviet Union but were perceived as a threat during the Second World War. They were moved to the Eastern part of the Soviet Union. He related how these communities of German Lutheran Christians had made a thoughtful response about what was essential to the maintenance of their faith. At the core of their decision was to keep their bibles and their hymnals. They told him what they missed was preaching. What will the Church in Canada take with it as it travels before the wind of change?

The questions about what to keep, what to keep but change and what to discard are questions to which every teenager needs to respond thoughtfully if she or he is to become a responsible mature adult. But it is not only teenagers who have to deal with these questions. Senior citizens who are moving into assisted living have also to respond to these questions. What is of value and essential that they will take with them, what needs to be change to be accommodated in their new lodgings and what has to be discarded?

In order to respond to the wind of change there needs to be an orderly and efficient process. It is the purpose of these questions to provide such a step by step deliberate process. This process will then lead to an informed and thoughtful adaptation to the wind of change.

The process starts with the Church clarifying its values, principles and theology. This step is important since it informs the whole decision making process. This thoughtful processrduces the anxiety in the Church. With anxiety becoming more manageable the Church will be open to significant changes. Instead of facing the future with fear and anxiety the Church can make friends with and embrace the new future. This affirmation of the Church as the creation of the Spirit of God will give birth to hope in spite of the bleak future painted by the statistics.

As part of the process of articulating its values, principles and theology the Church in Canada needs to confess to how it has contributed to its own decline.  An increasing secularization of society is not the only source of that decline. Integral to the process is that the Church accepts responsibility for the abuse and other scandals that have severely damaged its ministry and reputation. These scandals have unfortunately caused many to perceive the Church as offensive and irrelevant. The attention the Church has received in the media all too often relates to reports about scandals and schism.

The only way the Church in Canada can plan for a new future is for it to acknowledge and confess its failures and sins.  By confessing it acknowledges and accepts responsibility for its own brokenness and how it has betrayed its values, principles and God’s love. There is much talk in the Church of speaking truth to power which is understood as confronting governments and organizations with its injustices. But this process of renewal in the face of the wind of change means that speaking truth to power implies addressing the Church and how it has participated in injustice. This process calls on the Church confess to God and all others that it has sinned “in thought, word and deed.” Only then will the Church be free to make informed thoughtful decisions as it seeks to embrace the inevitable change. The wind of change is blowing and the Church is being buffeted by the wind. There is inevitability in the need to change. Just as one cannot stop the wind or change its direction the option for the Church is to embrace the change or continue on the path of decline.

The process of addressing the process of change and defining a new future is a matter for the the whole Church to be involved, both lay and clergy. The problem belongs to the whole Church. Effective ministry in the future will require a new understanding by lay and clergy of leadership. The wind of change is revealing that there is a leadership problem within the Church. Leaders are not equipped to lead in a changing Church. The future Church will have to equip the clergy leaders for ministry not just in a Church with a declining membership but more importantly how to minister in an increasingly secular society. Without the clarity of self the Church will flounder. This means that theological education will need to change if it is to prepare clergy to minister in a Church that for the first time in Canadian society will be a minority. This is not a problem for some distant future but statistics already reveal that this future is already present in British Columbia and the Yukon.

The Church needs to consider approaching those Churches who are already doing ministry in societies in which it is a minority. Such a process means that the Church in Canada is in the porition of being the student who gathers at the feet of these new teachers. This will require an attitude of openness to learning from them tempered with humility.

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[1] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2021001/article/00010-eng.htm

[2] https://anglicanjournal.com/gone-by-2040/

[3] Patricia Killen and Mark Silk. ( March 12, 2004) Religion in the Pacific Northwest: The None Zone (Volume 1). AltaMira Press.

[4] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/29/why-is-the-christian-population-of-england-and-wales-declining